Polymarket Predicts Low Chance of Trump Resigning Before 2025
Cryptocurrency-based prediction betting site Polymarket has downgraded its forecast for Donald Trump resigning in 2025, after a brief spike in bets following speculation about the President’s health.
The increased betting activity was fueled by days of rumors on social media, including false claims that the president had died. This speculation intensified as Trump had not made a public appearance since an Aug. 26 cabinet meeting and the administration called an unscheduled Oval Office announcement on Tuesday afternoon.
The odds reached 4.5% on the morning of Aug. 31 before dipping slightly after Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that he had “never felt better.” However, speculation intensified again after news emerged of an unspecified Oval Office announcement scheduled for Sept. 2
This caused the resignation probability to spike dramatically, hitting a peak of 10.4% in the early hours of Sept. 1. By 6 a.m. that morning, the odds had dropped back to 5.4%, still elevated from the previous month’s levels.
“The President will be making an exciting announcement related to the Department of Defense,” said White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt. The odds subsequently dropped, remaining significantly higher than the previous month’s levels but still indicating a low likelihood of resignation.
Some observers had cautioned that the excitement was likely overblown. “People getting very excited about this - but worth remembering the White House has included unspecified ‘announcements’ on the daily schedule twice in the last 3 weeks or so, and both times it was nothing interesting,” wrote Mirror journalist Mikey Smith on X.
The president’s lack of public events was also attributed to the Labor Day weekend and his historical pattern of taking extended summer vacations in August.
Trump Jr. Polymarket investment
The activity on Polymarket comes as the prediction platform is making a push to re-enter the US. The company recently announced that Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, is making an eight-figure investment in it, and the president’s son will join its advisory board.
The move is curious given that Trump Jr. has a paid role as a strategic advisor for Polymarket’s rival, Kalshi. A spokesman for Trump Jr. said the investment did not change his role with Kalshi and that he was “committed to supporting the prediction market industry as a whole.”
Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. During the recent election campaign, more than $1 billion was wagered on its platform on the presidential race.
The company’s return to the US market appears imminent following a recent acquisition of a licensed derivatives exchange and a partnership with the social media platform X. The company was also banned from operating in the US as part of a 2022 settlement with the Biden Administration.
