Fantasy Football for the Conclave: How Italians are Betting on the Next Pope
Italian gambling fans have found a new way to wager on the upcoming conclave to decide on the new pope, via a new online game called Fantapapa.
The game, inspired by the popular fantasy sports league model, offers Italians the chance to assemble a team of 11 candidates. Players are awarded points if a member of their team is mentioned in the media. Extra points are awarded if one of your team members is elected.
Conclave Betting Discouraged in Italy
It is not illegal for Italians to gamble on the conclave. Still, the government authority that regulates this type of betting has asked sportsbook companies not to accept bets on the identity of the next pope, and they have obeyed mainly.
Trying your luck on Fantapapa is not a direct replacement for a wager at the best sportsbooks, as there are no prizes for winning, and the game is free to play. However, that hasn’t stopped thousands of Italians from signing up to play. By the end of last week, the number of users was nearing 60,000.
Fantapapa was created by Pietro Pace and Mauro Vanetti, both IT professionals. They started working on it when the late Pope Francis was admitted to the hospital earlier in February.
Conclave Betting is a Small Market
For many gambling companies outside of Italy, there are no restrictions on offering markets on the conclave. This type of wager is generally classified as a novelty bet; however, as there is little form or information to go on, and the markets are relatively small at many of the traditional bookmakers.
According to one UK-based bookmaker, there are four prominent names in betting.
“There's already plenty of speculation on the next Pope, and currently we make the Vatican Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin, our favourite at 9/4. Luis Antonio Tagle is second in our market at 3/1 and would become the first Asian Pope in history, while Matteo Zuppi and Peter Turkson are both priced at 6/1,” said Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for the UK sportsbook company William Hill.
On the other side of the pond, blockchain-based prediction companies like Polymarket and Kalshi also take wagers on the next Pope. However, from May 7, Polymarket has only seen around $20 million in total wagers.
Polymarket users make Parolin a 29% favorite, although more money has been traded on Tagle, the 18% second favorite. Turkson, at 6%, has also attracted interest. In contrast, Kalshi’s top two contenders are even more popular. Parolin is the favorite, at 31%, with Tagle at 19% and Matteo Zuppi in third place.
